The Lessons from a Lost War

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/lessons-from-a-lost-war/article5747040.ece

Afghanistan plays a central role in the geopolitics of world. Totally landlocked, this country has been the center of attention for quite some decades now. To understand today’s article we need to understand Afghanistan-

In 1973, Afghanistan was under the rule of Zahir Shah who was the last king of Afghanistan. Mohammed Daoud Khan, who was the Prime Minister of Afghanistan from 1953 to 1963 overthrew Zahir Khan in 1973 and declared himself as the President. But he was overthrown by People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) in 1978, in what is popularly called Saur Revolution. But PDPA was itself divided into two parts Khalq and Parcham. And the new government in 1978 was formed under Nur Muhammad Taraki. This is an initial backdrop of volatile 70’s in Afghanistan.

But the major change in the politics of the region occurs when Soviet decides to go in war with Afghanistan. Soviet Union feared that Afghanistan can be used as base for western military activity against Soviet Union. Under the leadership of Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Union’s 40^th Army, which had a fame of victory in the World War II goes for strike in Afghanistan. Babrak Karmal was installed as the head of Afghanistan by Soviet Union. But this war was going to last for around a decade was not expected by Soviet Union.

{Optional: To understand the different strategic deficiencies of wars of both Soviet Union and later US against Afghanistan, one needs to understand the ethnic composition of the region and the excessive allegiance of the people to the tribal chiefs.

On the basis of ethnic groups the division is: Pashtun 42%, Tajik 27%, Hazara 9%, Uzbek 9%, Aimak 4%, Turkmen 3%, Baloch 2%, other 4%.

And on the basis of religion the division is: Sunni Muslim 80%, Shia Muslim 19%, other 1%

Pashtun is the major ethnic group, and Pashto and Dari are their main languages. The society is divided into many tribal zones and the allegiance of the local population to the tribal chiefs is very strong.}

Pakistan, the neighbor of Afghanistan feared that Soviet Union will attack and capture the Baloch region of Pakistan and so under Muhammad Zia Ul Haq, the then president of Pakistan approached Saudi Arabia for help. Saudi Arabia and US provided funds to Pakistan to counter the increasing grip of Soviet in Afghanistan. ISI, Pakistan’s Intelligence Agency trained around 80,000 Afghans including Mohammad Omar (who later went on to head the Emirates of Afghanistan during 1996 and 2001). This training provided by Pakistan and funds provided by US and Saudi Arabia empowered tribes of Afghanistan to counter the Soviet Army and the war was extended for near a decade. The name given to the groups fighting against Soviet was ‘Mujahideen forces’. But many Mujahideen forces emerged due to decentralized nature of the Afghan Society.

Meanwhile the leadership changed multiple times in Soviet Union and finally under Gorbachev’s leadership the Soviet Union decided to withdraw the army fully. Gorbachev was also able to convince Babrak Karmal to come down as the head and installed Mohammad Najibullah as the head of the government of Afghanistan. Even after the withdrawal of 40^th Army, Soviet kept supporting Najibullah by giving the government of Afghanistan Oil, Military Equipment and funds.

With lack of a common enemy the Mujahideen forces started to attack each other for gain of power and did not unite against Najibullah with full strength. Despite attempts to topple the Najibullah government in 1989 by the Mujahideen, due to lack of unity among Mujahideens and flow of funds from Soviet, Najibullah government survived. With time, the seven main Mujahideen groups came together to formed Islamic Unity of Afghanistan Mujahideen.

Also, with the break of Soviet Union in 1991, the funds dried and the Najibullah government fell in 1992. Burhanuddin Rabbani became the president of Islamic State of Afghanistan.

Analysis of situation shows that the main reason why Afghanistan was unstable was due to presence of many mujahideen groups which emerged from many tribes. Soviet Army was not able to control the Mujahideen movement and hence when the army left Soviet there were many military factions in the Afghan Society and these forces brought down the Najibullah Government. Also the break of Soviet in 1991, changed the Politics of the region.

Later on Muhammed Omar who was trained by Pakistan, led Taliban, a more radical Islam movement and toppled Rabbani’s government in 1996. (Taliban, means student in Pashtun, which is a major ethnic group in Afghanistan). The orthodox government of Taliban was recognized only by UAE, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Taliban ruled from 1996 to 2001. In the long run, the funds provided by US to train Afghans worked against them as Taliban supported Terrorist outfits like Al Qaeda caused 9/11. US forces then attacked Afgahistan and under the Bonn Conference Karzai was made the head of the interim government and later on in Elections he became the president of Afghanistan. Rabbani formed the main opposition till his death in a suicide attack. In 2009, US forced decided to leave Afghanistan by 2014.

There are many different outfits of Taliban operating in the regions of Pakistan and Afghanistan. With withdrawal of US forces without proper elimination of Taliban forces or a proper deal with Taliban forces could lead to revisiting the situation as was in 1992 during toppling of Najibullah government. Moreover, Pakistan’s position has weakened to contain Taliban due to increased intensity of Taliban. It is of major concern to India as destabilization of NorthWest frontier of India could lead to further issues of security.

On the plus side we don’t see the dissolution of US power in recent times and hence Karzai government will keep receiving funds and supports from US and other western Nations. In the recent times, outfits of Taliban want economic growth for well-being of Afghan society and it could be a positive symbol of peace in this region.