Friday 7 March 2014

Caught Between Russia and the EU

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/caught-between-russia-and-the-eu/article5757614.ece
Nov. 21, 2013 — President Viktor Yanukovych’s government announces it is abandoning an agreement to strengthen ties with the European Union and is instead seeking closer cooperation with Moscow. Protesters take to the streets. The protest wave has been termed EuroMaidan.
Nov. 30 — Images of protesters bloodied by police truncheons spread quickly and galvanise public support for the demonstrations.
Dec. 1 — A protest attracts around 300,000 people on Kiev’s Independence Square, known as the Maidan, the largest since the 2004 Orange Revolution. Activists seize Kiev City Hall. Kiev is capital of Ukraine
Dec. 17 — Russian President Vladimir Putin announces Moscow will buy $15 billion worth of Ukrainian government bonds and cut the price Ukrainians pay for Russian natural gas.
Jan. 22, 2014 — Three protesters die during a confrontation between police and demonstrators manning barricades.
Jan. 28 — In concessions to the opposition, the prime minister resigns and parliament repeals harsh anti- protest laws that set off the violence.
Feb. 16 — Opposition activists end their occupation of Kiev City Hall in exchange for the release of all 234 jailed protesters.
Feb. 18 — Protesters attack police lines and set fires outside parliament after it stalls on a constitutional reform to limit presidential powers. Riot police respond to the violence by trying to push protesters off Independence Square. Scores die and hundreds are injured.
Feb. 20 — Hours after a truce is announced, violence resumes, with government snipers shooting protesters from the roofs. Most of the 82 deaths occur on this day.
Feb. 21 — Under a European-mediated plan, protest leaders and Mr. Yanukovych agree to form a new government and hold an early election. Parliament slashes his powers and votes to free his rival, Yulia Tymoshenko, from prison. Mr. Yanukovych flees Kiev after protesters take control.
During this Period Russia cancels to buy the bonds and also the concession given on prices of Natural Gas

Ukaraine seeks 35 bollion dollars from IMF

USA offer 1 billion dollar as immediate aid

Feb. 22 — Parliament votes to remove Mr. Yanukovych and hold new elections. Ms. Tymoshenko is freed and addresses tens of thousands on the Maidan.
Feb. 23 — Ukraine’s parliament assigns presidential powers to its new speaker, Oleksandr Turchinov, an ally of Ms. Tymoshenko. The new authorities ask the West for loans to avoid an imminent default. Pro-Russia protesters start rallying against the new authorities in Crimea, where Russia has a major naval base.
Feb. 24 — Ukraine’s interim government draws up a warrant for Mr. Yanukovych’s arrest. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev derides the new leaders in Kiev as “Kalashnikov-toting people in black masks.”
Feb. 26 — Leaders of Ukraine’s protest movement propose legislator Arseniy Yatsenyuk as prime minister. In Moscow, Mr. Putin orders major military exercises just across the border.
Status of Ukraine before February 21, 2014- The Autonomous Republic of Crimea was an autonomous parliamentary republic within Ukraine and is governed by the Constitution of Crimea in accordance with the laws of Ukraine.

Simferopol is the capital of Crimea. After abolition of law of languages on 23rd Feb, which abolished all minority languages including Russian there were clashes in Simferopol between Pro-Russia and Pro Ukraine members.
(Sevastopol port of Crimea Peninsula was under Russian control due to an earlier agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Thus there was a presence of Black Sea Fleet of Russia in Crimea Peninsula. )

Feb. 27 — Masked gunmen seize regional parliament and government buildings in Crimea. Ukraine’s government, with strong backing from the West, pledges to prevent a national breakup. Mr. Yanukovych is granted refuge in Russia.
Feb. 28 — Ukraine says Russian troops have taken up positions around strategic locations on the Crimean peninsula. Ukraine’s parliament adopts a resolution demanding that Russia halt steps it says are aimed against Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Mr. Turchynov says he has put armed forces on full readiness because of the threat of “potential aggression.”
March 1 — Russian troops take over Crimea without firing a shot. The Kiev government and its Western supporters are powerless to react. U.S. President Barack Obama calls Mr. Putin to demand the troops’ withdrawal.
March 2 — Ukraine appeals for international help, fearing a wider Russian invasion. Supporters on both sides take to the streets of Ukrainian cities and of Moscow. The U.S. says it believes Russia has more than 6,000 troops in Crimea. The Group of Seven suspends preparations for June’s G8 summit in Russia.
March 3 — Pro-Russian troops control a ferry terminal on the easternmost tip of Crimea, adding to fears that Moscow is planning to bring in even more troops.
Sergey Aksyonov  is elected as Prime Minister of  emergency session of Crimea Parliament. Ukraine Government calls this move illegal.

March 6 - MPs of the Crimean Parliament asked the Russian Government for the region to become a subject of the Russian Federation with a referendum on the issue set for the Crimean region for March 16th. The Ukrainian central government, EU and US disputed the legitimacy of the request and referendum

The major questions which rise are:
Is joining EU a good move economically for Ukraine, or the ramifications of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement be a trouble for Ukraine as indicated by ex-President Yanukovych.
Was the Euromaidan orchestrated with western assistance, as Ukraine joining EU could of great importance to EU geo-politically.

 Answers to above questions will come forward with time as events unroll.  

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