http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/lessons-from-a-lost-war/article5747040.ece
Afghanistan plays a central role in the geopolitics of world. Totally landlocked, this country has been the center of attention for quite some decades now. To understand today’s article we need to understand Afghanistan-
Afghanistan plays a central role in the geopolitics of world. Totally landlocked, this country has been the center of attention for quite some decades now. To understand today’s article we need to understand Afghanistan-
In 1973, Afghanistan was under
the rule of Zahir Shah who was the last king of Afghanistan. Mohammed Daoud
Khan, who was the Prime Minister of Afghanistan from 1953 to 1963 overthrew
Zahir Khan in 1973 and declared himself as the President. But he was overthrown
by People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) in 1978, in what is
popularly called Saur Revolution. But PDPA was itself divided into two parts
Khalq and Parcham. And the new government in 1978 was formed under Nur Muhammad
Taraki. This is an initial backdrop of volatile 70’s in Afghanistan.
But the major change in the
politics of the region occurs when Soviet decides to go in war with Afghanistan.
Soviet Union feared that Afghanistan can be used as base for western military activity
against Soviet Union. Under the leadership of Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Union’s
40th Army, which had a fame of victory in the World War II goes for
strike in Afghanistan. Babrak Karmal was installed as the head of Afghanistan by Soviet Union.
But this war was going to last for around a decade was not expected by Soviet
Union.
{Optional: To understand the
different strategic deficiencies of wars of both Soviet Union and later US
against Afghanistan, one needs to understand the ethnic composition of the
region and the excessive allegiance of the people to the tribal chiefs.
On the basis of ethnic groups the
division is: Pashtun 42%, Tajik 27%, Hazara 9%, Uzbek 9%, Aimak 4%, Turkmen 3%,
Baloch 2%, other 4%.
And on the basis of religion the
division is: Sunni Muslim 80%, Shia Muslim 19%, other 1%
Pashtun is the major ethnic
group, and Pashto and Dari are their main languages. The society is divided
into many tribal zones and the allegiance of the local population to the tribal
chiefs is very strong.}
Pakistan, the neighbor of
Afghanistan feared that Soviet Union will attack and capture the Baloch region
of Pakistan and so under Muhammad Zia Ul Haq, the then president of Pakistan
approached Saudi Arabia for help. Saudi Arabia and US provided funds to
Pakistan to counter the increasing grip of Soviet in Afghanistan. ISI, Pakistan’s
Intelligence Agency trained around 80,000 Afghans including Mohammad Omar (who
later went on to head the Emirates of Afghanistan during 1996 and 2001). This
training provided by Pakistan and funds provided by US and Saudi Arabia empowered
tribes of Afghanistan to counter the Soviet Army and the war was extended for
near a decade. The name given to the groups fighting against Soviet was ‘Mujahideen forces’. But many Mujahideen
forces emerged due to decentralized nature of the Afghan Society.
Meanwhile the leadership changed
multiple times in Soviet Union and finally under Gorbachev’s leadership the
Soviet Union decided to withdraw the army fully. Gorbachev was also able to
convince Babrak Karmal to come down as the head and installed Mohammad
Najibullah as the head of the government of Afghanistan. Even after the withdrawal
of 40th Army, Soviet kept supporting Najibullah by giving the
government of Afghanistan Oil, Military Equipment and funds.
With lack of a common enemy the
Mujahideen forces started to attack each other for gain of power and did not unite
against Najibullah with full strength. Despite attempts to topple the
Najibullah government in 1989 by the Mujahideen, due to lack of unity among Mujahideens and flow of funds
from Soviet, Najibullah government survived. With time, the seven main
Mujahideen groups came together to formed Islamic Unity of Afghanistan
Mujahideen.
Also, with the break of Soviet
Union in 1991, the funds dried and the Najibullah government fell in 1992.
Burhanuddin Rabbani became the president of Islamic State of Afghanistan.
Analysis of situation shows that the main reason why Afghanistan
was unstable was due to presence of many mujahideen groups which emerged from
many tribes. Soviet Army was not able to control the Mujahideen movement and hence when the army left Soviet there were many military factions in the Afghan
Society and these forces brought down the Najibullah Government. Also the break of Soviet in 1991, changed the Politics of the region.
Later on Muhammed Omar who was
trained by Pakistan, led Taliban, a more radical Islam movement and toppled
Rabbani’s government in 1996. (Taliban, means student in Pashtun, which is a major
ethnic group in Afghanistan). The orthodox government of Taliban was recognized only
by UAE, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Taliban ruled from 1996 to 2001. In the long run, the
funds provided by US to train Afghans worked against them as
Taliban supported Terrorist outfits like Al Qaeda caused 9/11. US forces then
attacked Afgahistan and under the Bonn Conference Karzai was made the head of
the interim government and later on in Elections he became the president of
Afghanistan. Rabbani formed the main opposition till his death in a suicide
attack. In 2009, US forced decided to leave Afghanistan by 2014.
There are many different outfits
of Taliban operating in the regions of Pakistan and Afghanistan. With withdrawal
of US forces without proper elimination of Taliban forces or a proper deal with
Taliban forces could lead to revisiting the situation as was in 1992 during
toppling of Najibullah government. Moreover, Pakistan’s position has weakened
to contain Taliban due to increased intensity of Taliban. It is of major
concern to India as destabilization of NorthWest frontier of India could lead
to further issues of security.
On the plus side we don’t see the
dissolution of US power in recent times and hence Karzai government will keep
receiving funds and supports from US and other western Nations. In the recent
times, outfits of Taliban want economic growth for well-being of Afghan society
and it could be a positive symbol of peace in this region.
